Red citizen (Day №5, part 2)
This article is a part of training material
Let’s consider the principles of the game, when three players are left at the Mafia game.
Remember the unwritten rule – all players should be nominated. When the player doesn’t nominate the last candidate, it is rather black move then the red one. Sometimes experienced players can divide the table, voting against themselves.
So, you, players number 9, 1 and 2 are left at the game. Suppose your candidacy is the last one. Player number 1 voted against player number 2 and 2 voted against 1. It is clear to each of them, that being “black” (mafia), you would add your second vote and win.
Each of the left players will try to convince you that they are red, bringing forward the arguments for their own benefit. Having voted against yourself and divided the table, you will get one more opportunity to listen to both players and get more information for better understanding of the situation. It doesn’t mean that after that you will win for sure, but no doubts you will increase your chances.
In this example both red and black players saw you being red, most likely you played the whole game in a right way and nobody played against you. So, in this situation it’s up to you and the possibility of winning is 50%. But how to build your strategy if both of players think that you are black? And moreover you are sure that you will not be able to convince the red player not to vote against you? It doesn’t make any sense to wait till they both vote you off and red team will lose
You may change the way game goes and the possibility of winning will be also 50%. This method is called “provocation” and is often used by experienced players. The provocation will be more successful if you speak first.
Let’s consider the same example
When your number is 9, players 1 and 2 both see you as mafia. It happened that in one of the days, you voted together with a mafia player or made an confusing move. You are confident that you will be eliminated, so try to make a provocation to a player who is the blackest for you.
For instance, you consider player number 1 to be black. Your task is to make player number 2 vote with you. If you speak first, nominate player number two, who is red for you. Try to make him black as hard as you can, remind his actions, which he has done, make up some phrases that number 2 “has said”. Try to make player number 1 think that you will vote against 2 for sure. Don’t forget to mention that all players should be nominated, and that player who will nominate nobody – is black. It’s in case if player 1 nominates you, and 2 will not nominate 1, being sure that you are black. You even can give some advice to the first player to nominate his candidacy, mentioning that second will nominate you in any case and this way all players will be nominated.
Suppose, all three candidates are nominated, and due to you, the voting is held against player number 2, presented by you as black. As soon as the moderator asks who is against player number 2, wave your hand, imitating the vote, but don’t put it in the table. I assure you, that number 1, if he is black, will vote against 2. For him it doesn’t make any difference whom to vote against. Of course, player number 2 will understand that being back you would win the game voting against him together with number 1. He will get your color and vote together with you against 1 and you will win. If you made a mistake and player number two is black, just take the loss.
Anyway, with your provocation you have 50% chance to win, instead of waiting till those players who has left at the table will vote you off and the loss will be guaranteed with all 100%. Risky, but the following applause and title of the best player will compensate you tension!
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